Bye By-Election

Oh dear!

It was widely expected that the Conservatives would win the Crewe & Nantwich by-election last week, but few were predicting that the 7,078 vote majority would be reversed, and indeed extended.

I don't think Labour can recover from here. I don't think Gordon Brown can recover from here. Suddenly the question isn't if the Tories can win the next general election, but by how much!

Election in 2010 anyone?

JR

Boris Wins, Brown Loses

Boris Johnson has won the race to be Mayor of London with 1,168,738 total votes. Just under 140,000 more than that of the incumbent, Ken Livingstone.

But the real loser in the May Day polls was Gordon Brown. His Labour Party was beaten into third place in a projected national share of the vote, from the English and Welsh local elections. The Conservative Party picked up (a projected) 44% of the vote, 20 points ahead of the governing party.

It has been reported on the BBC, and elsewhere, that Brown was comparing himself to John Major, in Major's local election losses in 1991 and coming back to retain a majority in the 1992 general election. However these results look more like the 1995 local election results for Major, just two years before Labour took a landslide majority in Westminster.

There could be more embarrassment for Brown before the month is out, with the by-election for Crewe and Nantwich being held on 22 May. It is very possible for the Tories to win this seat as they require a swing of just 6%. We'll obviously have to wait and see what happens in the vote.

JR

Polling Day

I know I'm not the BBC, but I shall endeavour not to break the rules on reporting on election day.

I'm going to my local polling station in Withington ward to cast my vote. The weather is sunny with a few showers. Polls are open until 2200 BST. The results will be announced overnight, except for Wales and London which will be announced later on Friday.

Laters!

JR

Labour U-Turn as Tories Take 18 Point Lead

Two bits of big news.

The government has taken a U-turn on the 10p tax rate as pressure mounted from backbench Labour MPs. Darling announced measures to compensate those hit worst by the abolition of the 10% rate on Wednesday, although he didn't mention anything specific. Labour MPs were informed by flyers handed out just before Prime Minister's Questions, presumabley to stop backbenchers from asking embarrassing questions of Gordon Brown in the chamber.

In today's Telegraph, the Conservatives are shown to have extended their lead over Labour to 18 percentage points. The Tories are polled on 44%, with Labour on 26 and the Lib Dems on 17. You'll notice that the sum of Labour and Lib Dem support is now lower than that of the Conservatives, giving them the majority of the popular vote of the three main parties. If repeated in a general election, the Conservatives would win a landslide majority of 154 seats.

The English and Welsh local elections take place on Thursday 1 May. Remember to get out and vote, whoever you are voting for.

JR

Is Brown Less Popular Than Hitler?

Gordon Brown's approval ratings have dropped faster and further than Neville Chamberlain's when Hitler invaded Norway in 1940.

Chamberlain's ratings dropped 48 points (+21 to -27) in six months in early 1940, while Brown has fallen a huge 85 points (+48 to -37) in the same period of time this year. The joke being that he is now even less popular than Hitler was at the time of Chamberlain's nose dive.

Now I suspect that had the British public been asked about Hitler's popularity in 1940 then he would have polled much lower than -37, however what is clear is the reason behind this sharp drop for Brown.

If there was one thing that Brown was credited for in the ten years he was Chancellor, then it was the stability of the economy. But after the Northern Rock crisis and the current global credit crunch, Brown has been found to have failed to save for the rainy days.

It's the equivalent of being promoted to a higher paid position ten years ago, going out every weekend and spending the extra cash and even taking an expensive holiday and paying for it on your credit card. You then find that you've been made redundant on the same day that your credit card bill arrives and just to cap it off, your house is found to have a major structural defect that means it will fall down within six months, unless thousands of pounds are spent on putting it right.

There's no money left in the taxpayer's wallet, and government borrowing is at 39% of GDP (just short of the 40% limit Gordon set for himself in 1997). So taxes are having to rise just at the time when the people haven't got the money to pay for it.

Come back Tony, all is forgiven!

JR

Brown on Student Politics

Did Gordon Brown try to put David Cameron down by saying he was playing Student Politics? I thought it was a bit of a watered down jibe. Maybe Gordon doesn't like students at the moment since they are costing him money (and he doesn't like spending money unless he can put it on his credit card).

For those that don't know what I'm on about, watch Wednesday's PMQs. You can find it on BBC iPlayer.

JR